World Series Preview: Everybody Wanted Bigger Names. We’ll Take Better Baseball.

Two Teams. No Titles.

It’s been a long summer of baseball, and we’re finally here. The World Series. For the first time since 1980, we have two teams playing for their first championship. Some people might not like the matchup from their couch, but these teams finished with the best records in their respective leagues, and it should be a beautiful display of baseball. As a fan of the game, this is exactly what you want. Two teams that play fascinating baseball, built differently but equally capable of taking home the prize.

Game 1 is Friday, October 23, at American Family Field in Milwaukee, with first pitch scheduled for 5 p.m. PDT / 7 p.m. CDT / 8 p.m. EDT.

The Milwaukee Brewers (103–59) took the National League by storm, then swept the juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS. Milwaukee trailed in all four games and won every damn one of them. An early lead means nothing against this team. The Brewers play gritty baseball, and they just sent the two-time defending champions home without a win.

The Tampa Bay Rays (98–64) bring their own brand of small-ball baseball. They finished with the lowest strikeout rate in the majors at 18.8%, stole 164 bases and constantly forced opponents to make plays. They’ll bunt, take the extra base and make your pitcher work instead of standing around waiting for somebody to hit a three-run bomb. It’s fun when you’re watching. Probably not as fun when you’re playing against it.

Strikeouts vs. Contact

Now Tampa Bay’s contact-heavy lineup faces Milwaukee’s strikeout-heavy pitching staff. The Brewers want swings and misses. The Rays rarely give them any. That’s where this matchup gets really interesting.

Milwaukee’s pitching staff finished the regular season with a 25.8% strikeout rate, tied for the best in baseball. Roughly one out of every four opposing plate appearances ended in a strikeout. Tampa Bay’s hitters, meanwhile, finished at 18.8%, the lowest in MLB. Their 20.7% whiff rate was also baseball’s lowest.

Strikeout rate measures how often a plate appearance ends in a strikeout. Whiff rate measures how often a swing misses. Tampa Bay was the toughest lineup in baseball to beat by either measure.

That makes Milwaukee’s usual approach a tougher assignment. Can the Brewers’ pitchers still put hitters away with two strikes, or will Tampa Bay keep extending at-bats and forcing the defense to finish them?

Walks Won’t Come Easy

Flip the matchup around and you get another statistical collision.

Milwaukee’s hitters led baseball with a 10.6% walk rate. Tampa Bay’s pitchers allowed walks at a 6.9% rate, the lowest in MLB. The Brewers weren’t accidentally standing around until ball four. They had baseball’s lowest swing rate at 43.8% and lowest chase rate at 26.6%, according to VSiN’s series breakdown.

They make pitchers earn their swings. Tampa Bay makes hitters earn their baserunners.

That could change how Milwaukee creates offense. If the Rays keep getting ahead and refuse to offer free trips to first, the Brewers have to punish pitches in the zone. The question is whether Tampa Bay can stay aggressive without becoming predictable.

The Changeup Matchup

There’s another complication for the Rays: they threw changeups more frequently than any other team. Milwaukee finished fourth in batting run value against changeups, according to that same VSiN breakdown.

Well, that’s pretty inconvenient for the Rays.

It doesn’t mean they should abandon a pitch that helped get them here. Location, movement and sequencing still matter. A changeup buried below the zone is a different problem from one left somewhere a hitter can do damage.

But Milwaukee has already shown it can handle that pitch. Tampa Bay’s favorite weapon happens to match up with a Brewers strength.

Watch how the Rays establish their fastballs and when they turn to the changeup. If Milwaukee recognizes it well, Tampa Bay’s pitchers may have to lean more heavily on their other pitches.

The Running Game

The regular-season stolen-base totals were almost identical: 164 for Tampa Bay, 162 for Milwaukee.

The defensive results were considerably different. Milwaukee allowed 71 stolen bases, second-fewest in baseball. Tampa Bay allowed 131, sixth-most, according to this running-game breakdown.

That gives Milwaukee a potential advantage once someone reaches first. A stolen base can turn a single into a scoring opportunity without asking the next hitter to find the gap.

Tampa Bay has the speed to cause problems, too. But reproducing its regular-season running game against Milwaukee could require better jumps and more selective opportunities.

The Bullpens

There’s one more contrast worth watching in the late innings.

Milwaukee’s bullpen averaged 98 mph on its fastballs this postseason, compared with Tampa Bay’s 93.2 mph. Yet the Rays had the higher strikeout rate: 26.7% to Milwaukee’s 24.5%. The slower group got more strikeouts, as MLB’s bullpen breakdown details.

Those are smaller samples, but they’re a useful reminder before everyone starts worshipping the radar gun.

Milwaukee wants strikeouts and walks. Tampa Bay is unusually good at denying both. Both teams want to run, but Milwaukee has been much better at stopping it. These were the best teams in their leagues, and now each has to beat an opponent equipped to take away something it does well.

Some people wanted bigger names in the World Series. I just want to see how these two teams plan to get each other out.